EFCAndrew.com

 2008 and 2009 were years when the poor economy was a top issue. 2010 will be the year when people really see the light at the end of the tunnel and economic rebound starts to affect the church.

There are two main reasons why this year will bring economic rebound; fatigue and recovery.  People are ready and willing to get back to their "old lives" when things were good, and we are likely to start seeing that happen, or at least people acting like it is happening.

Fatigue is going to play a big part in the rebound.  People are sick and tired of being told how poor they are and how bad the economy is doing.  Economic headlines are starting to slip off the front page and the collapses that brought us to this state show up less and less in even the business news sections.  Even if things simply plateau, the state of panic is passing and the recession is becoming the new normal.  The level of panic has subsided and belts have been tight for long enough that it just feels normal again so people will start feeling good, or at least neutral, about the economy again.

Fatigue also affects people's habits.  We may have settled into a leaner weekly and monthly budget, but people are getting tired of putting off their larger purchases and trips.  As fears settle down, people are going to start getting larger ticket items again, vacationing again, and giving again.

Recovery will also play a role, as the economy gets a boost from government help that finally makes it to the average person and creates jobs, relief programs that are finally up and running and spending that picks up again.  Of course, there is the possibility of a double-dip recession and things could get worse again, but for now it looks like we are going to start trending upwards.

For the church this will mean an increase in giving again and more people missing on Sunday mornings.  For many churches, there was a whole class of people who no longer felt like they could get away for the weekend with the recession who are just itching to go somewhere.  Churches can expect to see more out of area visitors this year and regulars that miss a few more weeks compared to 2009.  Giving will also go up, but people will be cautious about starting any new programs and expenses for the church.

These trends will hopefully push more church budgets in the black for 2010 as the economy rebounds, but we should be cautious that the rebound may not last.